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“THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!”, Trump’s post just a few hours before he announced a 90-day pause on most of his new tariffs (except China). This news sent the S&P 500 up 9.5% for the day. Great news for someone who took the President’s advice and made a decent profit.(Is this even legal!?) On April 2, 2025, Trump declared a 10% tariff on all imports, effective on April 5, with additional country-specific tariffs set to commence on April 9.
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Would you pay $1000 for an unbiased coin toss that gives you $2000 if heads and nothing if tails? Tomorrow you can have zero or $2000 in your pocket, each with a 50% probability. Surely you don’t feel neutral about it. You would either take it or not. But mathematically, you should be neutral about it. Since the fair value of a bet is given by the linear combination of the two states (mathematical expectation), which in this case is just (50% * $0) + (50% * $2000) = 1000. So where is the discrepancy?
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Noticed those once-in-a-while AIC posters around campus? Something about…The Satyam saga…The Tech phoenix…? Let’s break this down.
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Would you pay $1000 for an unbiased coin toss that gives you $2000 if heads and nothing if tails? Tomorrow you can have zero or $2000 in your pocket, each with a 50% probability. Surely you don’t feel neutral about it. You would either take it or not. But mathematically, you should be neutral about it. Since the fair value of a bet is given by the linear combination of the two states (mathematical expectation), which in this case is just (50% * $0) + (50% * $2000) = 1000. So where is the discrepancy?